twitter sets up for its ipo- will the risk be worth the reward for the average investor? in today's cover story.... how employers are raising the bar on job applicants. plus.... making money on black friday... a trader who is keeping a tabs. and...despite strides in the housing market....why we're hearing the real recovery is far from over. first business starts now! you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas good morning everybody! it's tuesday, november the 5th, i'm angela miles. in today's first look... earnings and the economy will be the focus of trading today. more than half of the companies in the s&p 500 have reported results. on the

s&p earnings scorecard. roughly 68% delivered postive results while 18% of earnings have been negative. and it's election day in several states and cities across the u.s. don't forget to vote. larry shover of sfg alternatives joins us on this tuesday morning. good morning larry. > > good morning. > > we are closing in on that twitter ipo. what would be your play on the debut day? > > yeah i think my play would be to wait to fade the move-- buy it lower because i'm really sure that's going to happen. i mean consider what happened with the other ipo's: facebook, groupon-- especially groupon. it just cratered after it came out and it's fresh on everybody's mind. also think about the fact that both facebook and linkedin were earning a profit when they ipo- ed. twitter is still not earning a profit. i think the ipo is going to be faded and a good buy for the long-term. > > you're a smart guy. you're

watching these markets. so if you had $1,000, what would you buy right now? > > you know right now i think i would chase the money with the big boys-- the hedge funds. right now they're still buying cyclical stocks. two of my favorites happen to be union pacific and google... and i know google has had a nice strong run, but it still has potential to go higher. > > we have a jobs number coming out on friday. how are you positioning, or are you? > > i'm definitely positioning for it and there's been a massive dislocation in the asset classes. we see the s &p 500 really doing a whole lot of nothing and we see the u.s. dollar rallying. last week we had u.s. treasuries up 15 basis points in three days so i think it's going to be real real scary with friday, and i'm positioning myself by being real small. > > larry thank you for your thoughts today. > > you're welcome. as traders await the jobs numbers for october due out friday... we're learning of a disconnect that's happening between job applicants and employers. as our cover story explains, a lot of applicants are out of sync with what employers expect. a study for devry university's career

advisory board found job seekers initially have an abundance of confidence that may have little basis in reality. more than half--56% of job seekers interviewed say they know what employers look for and 72% are confident during the interview. but on the other side of the interview, only 15% of hiring managers say they are impressed by the majority of job seekers they meet as having the skills and traits they're looking for. "they are not telling compelling stories and haven't made the case that they add value to the postion they're applying to." what follows can be a shock to job applicants confidence---not only are hiring managers unimpressed---two out of three say they don't have to settle for candidates without perfect qualifications for the job. "if you're out there talking about time-management or good interpersonal skills, that doesn't get the job done. it's about skill emphasis." susy francis, executive director of cornerstone counseling in chicago says applicants become discouraged and depressed after several frutless interviews. "be really specific. think what

you're going to do with the next 12 hours or how you'll spend the next $100. that lessens anxiety." francis recommends discouraged applicants to network, keep your social contacts active. "going out, getting dressed is good.you don't need to say, "i'm susy and i'm unemployed. say, "i'm susy and i'm artist." to access the full report on closing the gap between job seekers and hiring managers, it's on the website: careeradvisoryboard.org. the government officials who were in charge of the federal affordable care act website-- head to the capitol hill.. the senate hearing begins today. marilynn tavenner who acknowledged the rocky rollout of the website-- healthcare.gov-- will testify. last week tavenner testified

before a house committee. exact enrollment numbers are expected later this month. lawmakers on capitol hill are debating whether a new way to calculate consumers' credit scores will help "or" hurt. the proposed changes would include "non-loan" payments such as rent and utility bill payments in a person's credit score. this could help the 50 million americans who aren't able to generate a credit score because they do not have a credit card or loan. critics contend that the more bills included in one's score means more chances to do damage to that score. despite the market hitting all- time highs, americans are not putting their savings into stocks. lingering emotional trauma over the 20-08 stock market crash is blamed for only 18% of investable assets in stocks. another 7% are in bonds. the majority of american savings is in cash at 48%. money market funds are also popular. the survey was compiled by money management firm blackrock.

activist investors could soon set their sites on europe. well known activist investor--william ackman (act) made that statement while speaking at oxford's business school. he says activism in europe is about a decade behind the u.s. ackmam recently started a fund that looks for global opportunities. ackman is famous for his unsuccessful shakeup at jc penney. and has been waging a public debate with fellow activist investor carl icahn over the viability of herbalife. ackman labels the nutrition supplment company a pyramid scheme, which the company denies. traders are well aware of the importance of staying ahead of the curve -- scott bauer of trading advantage joins us with ideas on buying and selling retail stock ahead of black firday. good morning scott. > > good morning angie. > > we have an unusual situation here. we have thanksgiving and hanukkah happening at the same time. how will that affect trading? > > you know this is the first time ever and it's not going to happen again and i do think we are going to lose retail sales in that first week or so after thanksgiving when all the black friday sales come out unless some of these retailers-- which i think may happen-- may

actually-- a week ahead of thanksgiving -- come out with some early bird specials let's say because that's a significant part of the market of people shopping for hanukkah that normally would be during the month of december that now really has to be mid to late november. > > now scott, walmart, macy's and target tend to be the big players. are those stocks you would buy or sell here? > > here's what i would like, target over walmart and here's the reason why: going into this holiday season, if crude remains where it is and oil prices and especially gas prices keep coming down-- that's what's going to be on consumers minds. that's that first and foremost-- i go to the pump and i know i can save $20 over what i was paying just two, three months ago. you know what? i feel good about that. so that's going to make me want to go not necessarily to the low end, but maybe the mid-tier. i kind of look at target as the mid-tier over walmart. > > what about best buy? this stock has been a stunner. > > you know what? they are back in the lime light and i'm not sure if profits are going to

be staggering for this holiday season, but i think their revenues are blow past estimates. you know what? they have made such a turn-around they are in such a positive light in the consumer world. i think they're going to do fabulous this holiday season. > > and finally jcp and sears-- stay away or maybe buy? > > jcp i wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole because i think that all of their competition going into this retail season-- they're going to blow jc penny away. why would i want to go to jc penny? i can get the exact same merchandise elsewhere and just not have the stigma of this company that unfortunately has been in the news for a troubled past. sears on the other hand, sears we're seeing a magnificent, magnificent run. it's up almost 50% in the last two to three months. so i think they can capitalize on that and especially will capitalize on some of the market share from jc penny. > > thank you for your thoughts today, scott.

> > thanks angie. a new cut of steak is popping up in restaurants. a meat scientist in dalls-- has been studying cow parts that are fit for serving. according to the la times-- tony mata and his team of researchers have found a new steak for the meat industry that comes from mining the muscle under the shoulder blade. the new cut named the "vegas strip steak" sells for around $6 per pound. the beef industry is reeling from a drop in sales and eager to deliver affordable yet upscale steaks to consumers. this may come as a shock-- but the nfl enjoys non-profit status. the national football league's $9 billion in revenue isn't all tax exempt but head office operations -- such as comissioner roger goodell's $29.4 million salary -- are exempt. a new bill introduced this week would change that by revoking the league's 501-c 6 status. a change dot org petition has received more than 260-thousand signatures supporting the move. league lawyers say critics of the nonprofit status are "misguided" steve job's legacy is "parked" in history. the garage where he and steve wozniak started apple has been named an historic site. the silicon valley

structure built in 19-62 is where steve jobs grew up. it's owned by the jobs trust. the "jobs" garage is only 10 miles from the gargage where hewlett- packard got its start. it was granted landmark status in 2007. india launches an unmanned mission to mars today. the $73.5 million project is the nation's first interplanetary probe. if successful, the orbiter will reach mars in september of 2014. still to come... from humble beginnings to a sought after stock.... we track one of the fashion world's most sucessful ipos. plus...would you buy twitter stock on day one? you might want to hear our upcoming report before deciding.... and

straight ahead...if you thought the housing crisis was over....think again. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪

the housing crisis is far from over for some americans.. joining us now-- to take about the collateral damage-- free lance journalist and author-- laura gottesdiener she's written the book: dream

foreclosed: black america and the fight for a place to call home. welcome to our show. > > thank you for having me. > > i know that you have done a lot of research with your book and one of the things that you've found is that african americans were hit hardest by the housing crisis. so why was that? what happened here? > > we saw-- you know just to start from the top-- we saw people of all races, ethnicities, religions, everybody hit really hard from the housing crisis. through my research i uncovered that there were 10 million people in this country evicted by bank pursued evictions throughout 2007 to today. that's as if every man, woman, child in the state of michigan were thrown out of their homes in the span of five years. > > that's a lot of people. > > it's an incredible amount of people but we still saw disproportionate lending practices, disproportionate

enforcement hit people of color harder and we saw people of color-- african americans-- really being hit the hardest, and the reasons for that are complicated and related to a long trajectory of racism and discrimination in this nations history, but particularly it was the result of predatory mortgages-- you know what the industry calls sub-prime-- being pushed extremely hard in african american communities. so you saw, for example, if an african american family of good credit score-- you know about over 660-- walked in to any of the leading mortgage pushers company offices, they were three times more likely than a white family of the exact same credit score to be sold a subprime mortgage. so we saw these communities being targeted, being targeted through mailings, being targeted through phone calls, being targeted in all of the offices by all of the same companies and at the end of the day that's simply wide-spread institutional racism. > > so they were the first to lose their homes obviously as well. > > yeah. > > so what happens to those people? you're telling some of their stories. > > right so we saw a lot of people-- you know--displaced and then they we spend a time of instability essentially homeless. what's very disturbing to me right now is we're seeing massive hedge funds

in private equity companies-- companies like the blackstone group-- now really moving into the market snapping up tens of thousands of foreclosed homes and converting them to rental properties. so what we're seeing is a whole class of people-- you know approximately between 4 and 5 million home owners-- are now being pushed into the rental market and they're essentially being rented their homes back by the same companies that foreclosed on them. > > unbelievable. especially in detroit i know this is happening. so tell me the silver lining. is there any hope here? > > you know i think what i was looking at in this book are communities are more mobilizing to stop foreclosure and displacement and argue for a different model of housing in this country. that to me is the silver lining-- that we've seen grass roots activism. > > good to have you on the show, laura. the book is a dream foreclosed and you can find laura at rolling stone magazine as well where she is a writer. thank you for coming in today. > > thank you for having me. coming up.... with twitter set to go public....we spell out some of the risks of buying

ipo-s on day one of trading. plus....in chart talk... one trader says he wants a piece of papa johns. we'll be right back.

i'm going to pass chemistry, and i'll take it from there. i'm going to do what makes me happy. i'm going to work hard. be independent. live large. make the most of every opportunity. i knew i wanted to go to college. but figuring out how to pay for it? i didn't have a clue. the u.s. department of education has over $100 billion. and that's a lot of money. to help students pay for college. and the free application? you mean the fafsa. i did it online. it was easy. i'm never giving up on my goals. i will make a difference. i'm going to find out how to pay for college.

i'm going to college.gov.

the ipo-- you've heard that term- initial public offering, when a company first sells its shares to the public. imagine the riches if you bought & held some of the first shares of say apple, yahoo or microsoft. and right now there's a lot of buzz right now about twitter and its ipo. you can make millions buying in at an ipo - but - well let's talk with becky yerak, a business reporter for the chicago tribune. but you can also lose your shirt... > > yes kind of the worst case scenario is you're the earliest investors in these ipos and then they fall below that price. but so far this year these ipos are doing even better than the s &p 500 and the s &p 500 has

been hitting record levels. but if you buy them after the first trading day, you're still up but you're not doing as well. so it's important to get in really early, but that's really tough for the average investor to do. > > the so-called friends and family group that get in early on, and if you buy it even a day later you might have missed the boat. > > yes, even though these stocks are doing better than the s &p this year, if you bought at the first day's closing price you're not doing as well as the s &p 500, but you're lucky you're even doing better because a lot of these ipos, they don't even trade above the offering price after a while. > > you know, it's all in paper work they have to file with the government. they spell out the risks. > > investors-- if you're interested in an ipo, either before it starts trading or afterwards, you should go to securities and exchange

commissions website. they lay out all of this information. they will talk about the fact that they've never ever earned a profit in their entire life of the company. so that's risk with a capital "r" yet it's kind of exciting for people to say, "you know i did buy in early and i've been holding these shares for a lot time." what are the tips out there? where do people get guidance? > > well you should keep it to a very very small percentage or your portfolio. if you're going to buy in an individual stock. there are also now funds that actually will invest kind of like mutual funds for ipos. so that spreads the risk a little bit over different companies. also again, you go to the securities and exchange commission website, you read the company's actually documents and also be sure if you're reading a document, you check periodically because they can ammend those documents and provide more updated information on how the company is doing. > > buyer beware is the basic point here.becky yerack, thank you so much. > > thank you michael kors is one of the great american ipo success stores. kors stock is up more than 200% since its ipo. and the market cap tops $15 billion dollars. adding to the list of

accomplishments-- kors was added to the s&p 500 friday. designer michael kors debuted the stock in late 2011. since then the company has turned in a solid performance due in part to a strong demand for luxury products. kors reports earnings today. just ahead -- a trader who thinks it might be time to nibble on a pizza stock. chart talk is next i wanted to be in the military since i was a kid.

i served a total of 16 years. and at 19 years old, that's the first time i ever saw somebody die. coming back, i was raging. i started having pretty horrible nightmares. i started drinking a lot. i guess i never recognized it in myself. it all starts with going to the va. there's a whole community of veterans that just want to help you out. it's for the guys who couldn't come back, you owe it to them to live well. because they're not here with their families.

james ramelli of kingofthemarket.com joins us now for a critical look at earnings. good morning to you james. > > good morning. > > you are watching papa johns. now this stock has had a great year so far. what do you anticipate? > > right, so they're set to report their next quarterly earnings here and they have had a great year. i think that continue on this earnings announcment here. they have a really good historical track record on earnings day. the stock has rallied six out of the past eight quarters with an average move of around 6.5%. so it does move a lot and it does mean that there is opportunity there. i think that the stock can rally higher-- probably as much as $4 by november expirations so i'll be looking for a price target of around $80. we saw domino's beat on

estimates and sell off, but then get a really nice bid off of lows here. so even if pzza has lower on earnings report i think it creates a great buying opportunity for me. > >is it just because we have such a great appetite for pizza that's motivating this stock higher? or is it something else technically happening here? > > right so technically, we have a really good looking chart here. you know it's hard to say what the fundamentals are here and what that might be contributing to the stock heading higher here. i mean the market is up quite a bit this year and this stock is out performing the market. as a momentum trader, i like to stick with stocks like that and find opportunities to buy them ahead of catalyst events. > > another stock you like is talisman. now this stock has carl icahn taking a big stake here so tell us about this one. > > right so they don't have the same positive historical earnings day movement that pzza does. it's rather mixed. this stock has sold off four times and rallied four times over the past eight quarters. the chart is in technical bullish

territory but it's not an amazing looking chart. there's two things here that are making me look at the stock to the long side ahead of earnings. one is this carl icahn stake. we saw the stock get a very nice pop when he tweeted he was amassing nearly a 6% position in the company and two is unusual option activity flows that we've been seeing in tlm. we've been seeing a lot of action in the january 13th call line. an open interest in that line has swelled to nearly 15,000 contracts now all on the buy side. so instituional money is looking for this one to go higher. carl icahn likes it that means that i like it too and will be looking to get long before earnings. > > and we like you. thank you very much james ramelli. > > thank you. that's it for now.-- coming up tomorrow... it's movies and money-- our critic will be here with his take on all the action at the box office. from all of us at first business.. thank you for watching-- we hope you have a great day!

>> the following is a paid presentation for supersmile, brought to you by guthy-renker. none of the testimonials or dentists in this show have been paid to share their opinions. >> a bright and healthy smile can be your biggest beauty asset. it's one of the first things people notice about you. but if you're embarrassed by your smile because of your stained, discolored, dull teeth, it's hard to feel good about yourself. now you can turn back the clock on your teeth and safely get a naturally whiter, brighter, sexier smile thanks to an astonishing new teeth whitening system. it's time to turn your smile